What it will take to win the 2024 national elections in South Africa

South Africa finally has a date for the national elections, and data analysts who usually help brands win share of voice have turned their attention to how political parties could win a share of the votes. This is what they report.

The elections are an opportunity for fed-up South Africans to use the democratic tools at their disposal to effect the change they want to see. Between now and May 29 political parties will be campaigning at full throttle, attempting to win the hearts and Xes of voters. (If you have a pothole on your street, now is the time to report it!) But data analysis reveals that political parties are going to need a lot more than glossy posters, pithy catchphrases and sweeping promises. That’s because they’re not only running against each other — their biggest rival is disillusionment.

Contradicting sentiments

In 1994 hopeful South Africans stood for hours in queues that snaked across the land to cast their ballots and usher in a new regime. Thirty years on, the picture is quite different.

Market research based on publicly available social media data shows that South Africans are viewing the upcoming elections as an opportunity to address the many issues they face daily. It’s a long list, and by no means surprising: load-shedding; corrupt politicians; poor service delivery; a buckling health-care system; water crises; crime, including gender-based violence; poor education; unemployment; the high cost of living, including the price of food; the high cost of fuel; and debt.

However, while many people are hopeful that this year’s elections will change the political landscape, the truth is that millions of young people have not registered, and of those who have, many will simply not show up on the day, or won’t know who to vote for, according to research and interviews conducted by the likes of Ipsos and EWN.

Avoiding the polls

There are about 61-million people living in South Africa today, 4% more than at the time of the 2019 elections. Only 44% of this population has officially registered to vote this year — a 2% decline from 2019.

Historical data reveals that about 70% of registered voters typically show up on the day, though  this number declined to 66% in 2019. And of those who do vote, 1% on average spoil their ballots. This means that fewer than a third of the population of South Africa will decide the future of our country.

A political party contesting the national election in 2024 has to do a lot more than persuade people to vote for it. It first needs to convert apathetic South Africans into voters and get those voters to the polls.

Show what’s possible

Much as young people want to believe in the power of voting to effect change, many of them think voting doesn’t necessarily yield change — hence their assertion “I will not be voting because I don’t see the difference”. It makes sense that young people would be disillusioned with the election process — it’s hard to believe in something you’ve never seen. South Africans aged 30 or younger have not witnessed a governing party change at national government level in their lifetime. What they have witnessed is a steady decline in infrastructure and service delivery and a growing dissatisfaction among citizens that has failed to translate into any kind of meaningful statement at the polls. That sends the message that voting doesn’t work.

Political parties need to restore faith in the democratic process by demonstrating their efficacy in a way that feels real and attainable. Not an easy task, but storytelling can be a powerful and persuasive tool when executed well.

Meet them where they are

To campaign for voters, rather than just for votes, parties need to rethink their strategies. A popular assumption is that the youth is often too nonchalant and disinterested to register, even while being subjected to socio-economic issues.

That doesn’t mean they can’t be reached. In an extreme example, one social media influencer tricked her followers into registering by uploading what appeared to be a link to her latest YouTube video. When her followers clicked on the link, they landed on the elections.org.za website.

There is a missed opportunity to reach young people with the right message, at the right time, on the platform of their choice. Parties need to be surprising and engaging, and should stand out against the political landscape with a brand identity that feels fresh. Voting TikTok challenge? Why not?

Demonstrate good values

The research shows that South Africans want a governing party that will solve their problems. However, what constitutes a problem is subjective. The successful political party will need to embody broader values such as ethical leadership, putting the interest of the people first and being willing to fight for citizens. Getting people to believe in parties’ values takes more than a good speech — voters need to see those values in action.

Of course, citizens also have responsibilities. For starters, they need to educate themselves by considering the manifestos of political parties, listening critically to what party leaders are saying and observing how party leaders behave in positions of power.

They also need to familiarise themselves with policies and understand the short- and long-term effects of these policies. One YouTuber noted: “The most dangerous person in South Africa is an uniformed voter, because ignorant citizens vote for rubbish parties.”

Head of data, insights and analytics Palesa Molukanele and senior analysts Kamogelo Masenya, Eugene Enslin and André Marais are part of the data team at VML South Africa.