PODCAST | Rand takes a hit from all directions

In the face of ongoing local and international economic volatility, this edition of the Business Day Spotlight focuses on the performance of the rand. 

Our host Mudiwa Gavaza is joined by Terence Hove, senior financial markets analyst at international multi-asset brokerage firm Exness. 

Following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent state of the nation address and finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s annual budget speech, the discussion focuses on the performance of the rand, which is down 7.3% against the US dollar since the start of the year.

Hove explains that the local currency has been negatively affected by a series of issues.

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Among a host of factors, ratings agency S&P Global this week unexpectedly downgraded SA’s credit outlook from positive to stable, citing infrastructure issues and power outages. In the same week, Stats SA revealed that the country’s GDP  declined 1.3% in the third quarter of 2022, to levels last seen at the height of the pandemic.

He also makes a case for why the SA Reserve Bank’s work to manage inflation within a certain range is valuable. 

In addition to domestic factors, Hove highlights global pressures such as oil prices, inflation, interest rates and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as factors that investors and market players are watching.

Topics of discussion include: the performance of the rand so far in 2023; domestic and international factors affecting the local currency; the importance of inflation targeting by the SA Reserve Bank and an outlook for the economy.