FERDINANDO GIUGLIANO: What Trumponomics means for the rest of the world. And it's not good
The global slowdown looks largely induced by politics. And the prime suspect is Donald Trump and his desire to put 'America first'
The U.S. president is presiding over an economic boom in his country that has pushed its unemployment rate to its lowest level in nearly 50 years. It’s not certain that the good times will last, and they may come at the expense of debt sustainability. What’s indisputable, though, is the toll that “Trumponomics” is already taking on other countries. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year and next by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent. While its prediction for advanced economies was left broadly unchanged, the fund trimmed its 2019 forecast for the U.S. Most important, there was a chunky revision for emerging markets and developing economies. These are now expected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points lower than forecast in July.
In principle, there’s nothing wrong with a slight deceleration in global growth. The world economy has enjoyed a decent run ...