There's a scenario - a bit of a stretch, I know -that the ANC splits before the 2019 election.

Already some Zuma supporters in KwaZulu-Natal are planning a breakaway, but their policy position is so feeble - radical economic transformation with all land falling under the control of traditional leaders - I doubt even Zuma would seriously entertain it.

But if somehow Ramaphosa were unable to secure a parliamentary majority next year he would be forced to form a coalition. Informal or formal, first in line would be the EFF, which would demand a high price for its support.

BL Premium

This article is reserved for our subscribers.

A subscription helps you enjoy the best of our business content every day along with benefits such as exclusive Financial Times articles, Morningstar financial data, and digital access to the Sunday Times and Times Select.

Already subscribed? Simply sign in below.

Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00.