There's a scenario - a bit of a stretch, I know -that the ANC splits before the 2019 election.

Already some Zuma supporters in KwaZulu-Natal are planning a breakaway, but their policy position is so feeble - radical economic transformation with all land falling under the control of traditional leaders - I doubt even Zuma would seriously entertain it.

But if somehow Ramaphosa were unable to secure a parliamentary majority next year he would be forced to form a coalition. Informal or formal, first in line would be the EFF, which would demand a high price for its support.

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