DAVID FICKLING: Gold and the Keynesian beauty contest
'Investors are participating in a Keynesian beauty contest, with decisions driven more by expectations about the behavior of other market participants than any irreducible core beliefs'
After a rally from its lows in mid-December to a peak of $1,358 an ounce Jan. 24, the metal has lost all its vigor. Prices traded sideways before slumping in recent weeks to the low 1300s. Without some gains soon, the 50-day moving average looks likely soon to slip below the 100-day measure, considered a bearish signal by many traders. This isn’t purely about the strength of the greenback, which is often blamed for declines in the price of dollar-denominated commodities. Converting the US dollar gold price into special drawing rights –the reserve assetcreated by the International Monetary Fund with a value based on a basket of global currencies – illustrates the point. A fair proportion of the past year’s weakness does indeed seem to coincide with a rising dollar, but in the most recent month declines have if anything been worse in SDR terms. Rising interest rates (which tend to decrease the attractions of coupon- and dividend-free commodities) haven’t helped. While gold managed to ...
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