BARRY RITHOLTZ: 10 reasons forecasts are always wrong, wrong, wrong
'The data overwhelmingly show that as a species, we are simply awful at this'
03 November 2017 - 05:58
I recently pointed out an errant recession forecast made a year ago by a person who has been more or less been predicting an economic slump since 2011. I was hoping to spark a discussion of why forecasts are so counterproductive, and why no one should make investments based on them. Instead, a discussion of passive bulls mocking active bears broke out. This was not what I intended.
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