It’s all up to the ANC
SA’s downgrade is inevitable, but there might still be hope, writes Johann Barnard
By the time you read this, you should have been able to tick off one more milestone on SA’s slide into junk status. At the time of writing, Moody’s was the only ratings agency that had not yet downgraded local currency debt, but it was expected to do so in its November assessment. Fears of this being the most likely outcome were fuelled this month when the Moody’s team made an unscheduled visit to the country. Punch-drunk SA investors will hardly be shocked at the decision: it has been two years since the surprise firing of Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister sent the rand tumbling and set off a chain of events that have delivered blow after blow to confidence levels. The outcome of next month’s ANC elective conference will shine a clear light on whether we’re likely to get back on the path of growth and progression.
McGregor’s view reflects the general market sentiment that we’re in for a bumpy period in the immediate future. The one consolation is that the effect of the possib...
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