Donald Trump’s 2016 victory caught most people by surprise, including him. The safest position since then has been to assume he will do it again. But there is a point at which once-bitten-twice-shy becomes intellectual abdication.

Most of the numbers, including the Trump campaign’s polls, show him heading for defeat in November. Common sense points the same way. It was one thing for Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton — then America’s most polarising figure. It would be another for him to beat the generally liked Joe Biden, the president having long since surpassed Clinton’s divisiveness.

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