London — The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update for June is not a cheerful document. Yet it does contain a cheerful point: the second quarter of 2020 should be the nadir of the Covid-19 economic crisis. If so, the challenge is to produce the best possible recovery.

The downgrade of the IMF’s forecasts since April is large, with global growth forecast at -4.9% this year, down from -3% in April. Next year’s growth is forecast to be 5.4%. Global output thus is expected slightly to exceed 2019 levels in 2021. Yet, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the GDP of high-income countries would still be below levels in the first quarter of 2019. Output would also be about 5% below levels implied by pre-Covid-19 growth trends.

BL Premium

This article is reserved for our subscribers.

A subscription helps you enjoy the best of our business content every day along with benefits such as exclusive Financial Times articles, ProfileData financial data, and digital access to the Sunday Times and Times Select.

Already subscribed? Simply sign in below.



Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now