“The economy, stupid.” Pinned to the wall, this motto famously reminded Bill Clinton’s campaign staff to stay on message as he ran for the US presidency in 1992. Somebody may want to pin it up in the UK Conservative party’s headquarters, because the party has instead managed to involve the entire country in its bitter little civil war over Europe. But economies can survive some rough handling by politicians. Amid the Westminster turmoil, how is the UK economy doing? The stiff-upper-lip response is that it’s fine. There were some grim forecasts of the short-term effect of a referendum vote to leave the EU, most prominently a shock scenario presented by the Treasury under George Osborne, and they did not come to pass. The UK economy sailed through the surprise result, demonstrating that Project Fear was nothing more than scaremongering — right? The truth is not so rosy. As independent experts predicted, the economy has been disappointing since the vote to leave. By “disappointing” I m...

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