Since the official Brexit policy of the UK government now seems to be “accidents happen”, it is a nourishing age for those who dine on uncertainty. Most of us, however, started feeling queasy long ago. If you’re looking for guidance as to how to digest the unpredictabilities of life, why not turn to a poker player for advice? Annie Duke, author of Thinking In Bets, says “wrapping our arms around uncertainty and giving it a big hug will help us become better decision-makers”. Fair enough. If we’re going to have to eat our uncertainty broccoli anyway, it may be best to swallow it down before it goes cold and limp. As the winner of several million dollars as a professional poker player, Duke has some credibility on this point. But is she right?One quibble is that games have a more tightly defined spectrum of uncertainty than reality does. Edward Thorp, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced in the c...

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