Bond markets screamed alarm during the 2010-12 eurozone meltdown. Not so in the UK’s current Brexit crisis. The UK gilt markets merely flickered as the government faced a no-confidence debate following the defeat for the withdrawal deal of Prime Minister Theresa May. On Tuesday 10-year yields edged five basis points higher. For investors, that makes sense. The risk of defaults on domestic currency debt is not an issue for a country with its own central bank. Eurozone countries cannot simply print extra banknotes. Capital flight is a bigger risk for the UK, given the UK’s outsize current account deficit. Political risks are hard to calculate. Will Brexit happen? The odds are surely narrowing that the UK remains in the EU, at least for a few months more. A chaotic exit looks as likely as posh Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg donning a flat cap to walk his whippet. Globally, Russian aggression or a European banking crisis are perceived as more significant risks by Oxford Analytica, based on su...

BL Premium

This article is reserved for our subscribers.

A subscription helps you enjoy the best of our business content every day along with benefits such as exclusive Financial Times articles, ProfileData financial data, and digital access to the Sunday Times and Times Select.

Already subscribed? Simply sign in below.

Questions or problems? Email or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now