The world outside the US is used to staying up all night to watch the US presidential election. The midterm elections, however, are not normally regarded as a global event. But this time is different. The results of the 2018 midterms will be seen all over the world as a crucial test of whether Donald Trump has permanently changed the US. The stakes have not been higher in a generation. If the Republicans do well, then many will conclude that “Trumpism” is here to stay. The rest of the world would have to make a long-term adjustment to an America that is highly protectionist and suspicious of treaties on principle — whether they deal with climate change, arms control, refugees or migration. However, if the Democrats prosper on Tuesday night, then the US president’s foreign critics will cling on to the hope that the Trump years may yet turn out to be an aberration — and that the old America is waiting in the wings to return. Countries that have been targeted by sanctions or tariffs by...

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