TRACEY DAVIES: No thanks, TotalEnergies

On July 29 TotalEnergies released a very short statement announcing its exit from offshore block 5/6/7 and offshore block 11B/12B. In the latter block it had made two gas discoveries in 2019 and 2020 that were touted as a potential source of new gas for PetroSA’s mothballed Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids plant.

The oil major said it is withdrawing because “it appeared to be too challenging to economically develop and monetise these gas discoveries for the South African market”.

Subsequent news reports and opinion pieces have uncritically quoted the views of several so-called industry experts on the implications of the exit. These include the African Energy Chamber, Africa’s most vocal lobbyist for the oil and gas industry whose chair is a Cameroonian lawyer dogged by accusations of fraud and corruption, and analysts, lawyers and bankers who all have a deep vested interest in the development of offshore oil and gas.

Since the announcement of the discoveries in block 11B/12B — described ad nauseam by politicians as a “game-changer” for South Africa — these experts, bolstered by an unquestioning media, have painted a picture of a magical future where South Africa has an endless supply of cheap, “clean” energy that sparks the creation of millions of jobs and launches our economy into the stratosphere.

The delays in realising this utopia are blamed on environmental justice groups, who are “anti-development” and “agents of foreign powers”. Not one article on TotalEnergies’ exit has bothered to seek the view of these groups or thought to point out that environmental litigation relating to offshore oil and gas has been aimed at ensuring that the government and oil companies do not ride roughshod over our constitutional rights.

In the beautiful gas-powered future envisaged by our “experts”, PetroSA’s epic levels of dysfunction are magically erased. This most pathetic of state-owned entities (recently revealed by amaBhungane to have awarded a contract potentially worth as much as R21.6bn to a now-liquidated football club) is transformed into an efficient, capable, honest arbiter of the country’s gas bonanza.

The technical and geographical difficulties associated with the discovery are also brushed aside. There is barely a mention of the enormous challenge posed by the gas finds lying in extremely deep waters, where currents are fast and strong and the seas often rough and stormy.

Most astonishingly, in this fantasy future climate change simply does not exist. The record-breaking run of all-time high temperatures, runaway wildfires, biblical floods and arctic ice melts is just … gone.

None of the local media pieces on TotalEnergies’ announcement has mentioned the implications of huge new oil and gas extraction for our national greenhouse gas emissions and our international commitment to reduce them.

Not one has made even passing reference to global scientific consensus that there should be no new oil and gas extraction if we are to stand any chance of avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Taking an alternative view

All that you can ascertain from these reports is that, instead of holding hands and skipping happily into a golden-hued gas future, South Africa is giving it all up and letting our neighbour, Namibia, walk away with the prize.

An editorial in this magazine claimed that “reports have suggested that the oil industry could earn Namibia more than R100bn a year in revenue”.

Oil industry reports also suggested that gas finds in Mozambique would “catapult” that country to middle-income status by 2021. But why let the truth get in the way of a good story?

How refreshing it would be to see our media put forward an alternative view to the one spouted by the oft-quoted oil lobbyists. 

A view that at least acknowledges the possibility that the exit of oil and gas majors from our national stage might mean we have dodged a major bullet, and have an opportunity to avoid the fate of countries such as Nigeria and Angola, where oil endowments have supersized a kleptocratic ruling class that cares even less for the poor than our government does.

A view that admits that in Mozambique, the same promise of gas riches has stalled sustainable development, given rise to an unmanageable insurgency and left the population even poorer than it was before the “game-changing” discovery. 

A view that conceives of the possibility that we can now forge an equitable, prosperous future for our country, one that is not shaped by the corrupting, malignant influence of the global oil and gas industry.