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The first couple of weeks of 2021 have not been easy. The persistent harsher lockdown rumours, tennis elbow flaring up, and the inevitable return of the ravaging Kommetjie baboon troop (which, naturally, coincided with a bumper harvest in our meticulously tended veggie patch).I have also found myself increasingly tinkering about in cryptocurrencies, where I still harbour hopes of restoring a lost fortune if I can time most of the wild rips and dips in prices.At the time of writing, I sensed a mild euphoria seeping into the equity market, and missives from my regular correspondents betray a sense of optimism for a year of markedly improved returns. That’s encouraging. But reading our 2020 Hot Stocks cover story reminded me of just how wrong investors can be at the start of the year, and just how much risk we simply can’t quantify at any particular point.If I assess my own strategy over the past six months, I would say there has been a distinct shift towards exchange traded funds (ETF...

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