The Covid-19 pandemic has upended all our scenarios. Until February political analysis in SA was focused mainly on power dynamics within the ANC and the tripartite alliance: would President Cyril Ramaphosa act fast or slow? Or at all? One way or the other would affect policy and shift investor confidence up or down. Then you drew some scenarios.

The pandemic has blown all that out of the window. A whole new set of actions and reactions have taken place. The balance of power has shifted, perhaps permanently. New priorities and pressure points have arisen. It’s a new paradigm...

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