The FM’s cover story this week suggests there is more resilience in the personal income tax (PIT) tax base, and greater buoyancy of real earnings in the economy, than many believe. It implies that there may be an upside revenue surprise over the next few years, which would raise the odds of fiscal consolidation being achieved.

While the suggestion that the National Treasury is probably being too conservative in its PIT revenue assumptions is encouraging, it’s unfortunately not the revenue side of the fiscal framework that everyone is most worried about...

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