PODCAST: South Africa’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for food price inflation

Some glimpses of positivity sometimes arise from the agricultural data that are worth highlighting.

That is not to say that all is well with South Africa’s agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry.

But if you are in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The messages I get from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains and oilseeds, as well as other field crops, suggest a promising season. The yields are up after last year’s drought.

I was worried that the excessive rains in April would cause quality damage to some crops. At the start of the harvest season, particularly in some grains, that was indeed the observation of some farmers. But things seem to have changed. I’ve heard that the quality of crops, especially soybeans, is not as bad as we expected, though there are areas with challenges.

What is also encouraging is the upward revision of the harvest. For example, on June 27, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimate for the 2024/2025 season in South Africa, lifting the expected harvest.

While there are five more estimates to come this year, when we reach the fifth estimate, we generally have more confidence in the size and quality of the crop, as some areas would have delivered a sizeable share of their crop to the silos.

The CEC raised South Africa’s 2024/2025 summer grains and oilseeds production by 3% from the May 2025 estimate to 18.43Mt. This represents a 19% increase from the previous season.

The monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (up 1%), soybeans (up 14%), and dry beans (up 4%). The rest of the crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month.

South Africa’s maize harvest is now forecast at 14.78Mt, 15% higher than the crop for the 2023/2024 season. Of the 14.78Mt, about 7.65Mt is white maize, and 7.13Mt is yellow maize. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of about 12Mt, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.

Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.65Mt, representing a 43% year-on-year increase. The uptick is primarily due to improved yields thanks to favourable rainfall. A significant portion of the soybean crop has already been delivered to commercial silos, and the quality is generally encouraging. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even final. The record harvest of 2.77Mt was recorded in the 2022/2023 production season. This ample harvest also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and soybean products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake.

Sunflower seeds are up 15% from the previous season, estimated at 727,800t.

The groundnut harvest is estimated at 63,510t (up 22% y/y), sorghum production is estimated at 137,970t (up 41% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 74,299t (up 47%). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields.

South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, though some areas may face quality challenges. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year. This bodes well for the moderating of food price inflation. The benefits of these ample harvests may be more evident in the inflation data in the second half of the year.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala, and Amanda Murimba produce this podcast