PODCAST: South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports from the US

South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the US is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from Southern Africa, whose maize production is down hugely because of the drought earlier this year.

Such imports will also depend on whether many US farmers planted white corn. Remember, the biggest white maize producers in the world are South Africa and Mexico. The US and the South Americans are big on yellow corn — which is for feed and industrial use.

Still, with all the tight supply issues, South Africa continued to export maize to Southern Africa to stabilise food supplies. We forecast the country’s overall maize exports at 1.9Mt through to the April 2025 marketing year (about 1.2Mt is white maize and 700,000t is yellow). More than a million tons have already been exported, mainly to Southern Africa.

So, any possible imports from the US will help ease the maize needs in the coastal areas, and some may be for re-exports to the continent. We already have some yellow maize imports from Argentina which have helped our feed industry in the coastal regions.

The possible imports would likely be at the end of December through to the first quarter of 2025. This will add downward pressure on maize prices, which have rallied in recent months, with white maize reaching record levels some time last week.

These challenges are for the near term. We remain optimistic about the new season as farmers continue to till the land across South Africa, and the weather prospects are encouraging. We hope the broader Southern African region plants its usual maize area.

Yes, the La Niña rains are delayed by roughly a month. Still, I don’t think we should call it off. The La Niña forecasts from various weather organisations remain active.

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