KEVIN LINGS: Lockdowns play havoc with GDP projections
Closing the gap between SA’s growth trend of around 0.5% and even a modest target of 3% on a sustained basis will take a greater effort than we’ve seen up to now
In its June 2020 world economic outlook, titled “A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery”, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down the 2020 global growth estimate, even as it revised up the 2021 growth outlook for many countries.
This year, the IMF expects global GDP to fall by 4.9% — quite a bit lower than its forecast in April of a 3% drop. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a much more damaging impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is now expected to be more gradual than previously estimated too...