Despite a wall of doubt, Gold Fields is likely to get its $6.7bn, all-share bid for Yamana Gold over the line, say investment analysts. “Yamana shareholders will probably take the money and run,” says one. “It’s a good way for them to crystallise some of the upside.”

As for Gold Fields shareholders, there’s a view that compared with rejecting the deal, supporting it would be the lesser of two evils. That backhanded assessment argues that if Yamana’s production and projects are off the table, they will have the capital allocation risk of whatever CEO Chris Griffith might do instead to reverse a production decline.  ..

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