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Shares in Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Sibanye-Stillwater rose to record highs in March. Then they retreated, hard. But with a risk premium being attached to palladium — which Russia produces in abundance — it’s hard to tell if we’re at the top, or in a lull in respect of platinum group metal (PGM) shares.

For now, there’s no avoiding Russia’s influence. It controls about 38% of palladium output, so  sanctions imposed in condemnatory response to its invasion of Ukraine would be a price-altering development. So far there’s been no indication of PGMs falling into the sanctions net. But on April 8, the London Platinum & Palladium Market (LPPM) suspended two government-owned Russian platinum refiners from its good delivery and accreditation list. This followed a similar ban on certain PGM bands delivered by Russian refiners by the CME Group/Nymex exchange...

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