What the US election is really about

Those who remember Bill Clinton’s run for the job as leader of the free world back in 1992 might also remember the catchphrase that became the mantra of his campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Lest he forgot that this was the main thing on US voters’ minds, the reminder was apparently taped to a wall in his office.

The Democrats’ focus on this one-liner probably helped deliver Clinton to the White House.

The slogan was coined by one of Clinton’s strategists, a lifelong spear-carrier for the Dems, Jim Carville. (Now 79, Carville’s fire remains bright as he offers shrewd analysis on his party — and its threats — thanks to the modern gift of YouTube and X.)

Now that both parties’ conventions are over, with neither offering more than a slight bump to the campaigns of presidential contenders Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, we can be sure that the economy will almost certainly decide how voters swing in November.

Right now, it’s dangerous ground.

Many Americans reportedly believe their country is in recession, for which they blame President Joe Biden — never mind that figures show the economy has grown at an annual rate of 2.8% for the three months to June. According to the BBC, this is nearly 1% up on what economists had forecast for the quarter. For perception is everything ... and Americans are worried about high prices and the cost of essentials.

Many will blame Harris, by way of Biden, for the problem. She might, of course, in turn blame Trump, whose mishandling of the Covid pandemic helped push inflation to nearly 10% — which in US terms is like Weimar Germany in 1923.

How November goes will depend on how each side can make its economic attack lines stick. That will take “message discipline” which, in one of the candidates at least, is sorely lacking.