A different kind of numbers game

“You run away from the devil, but you get into the fire. You burn anyway.”

This was ANC chair Gwede Mantashe’s Dante-esque way of describing the debate simmering in his party and in society over the DA’s continued participation in the GNU.

Mantashe went off script during his appearance at Sunday’s national Freedom Day commemoration, saying the ANC was being questioned over working with the DA instead of with Jacob Zuma’s MK Party and Julius Malema’s EFF, splinter parties of the ANC. 

“When people criticise us when it comes to the GNU, they say: ‘Why do you talk to the DA?’ It takes us all our time to explain that you never negotiate with your friend, you negotiate with your enemy. 

“I always remind people that ideology has no colour, ideology is the mindset. We can leave the DA, but I’m not sure if MK and the EFF are better options. They are so aggressive and hostile against the ANC, so it’s like losing a devil, by running to the fire,” Mantashe said.

The budget impasse over the now-scrapped VAT hike has set the stage for a third version of the national budget for the next fiscal cycle. The process is no longer solely in the hands of ANC finance minister Enoch Godongwana and the National Treasury, but dependent on approval by the GNU — whatever its make-up, with or without the DA.

The ANC and the DA met last Friday and again on Monday, for toned-down informal “talks about talks”. These were about the way forward for the budget process and the GNU.

It has been a long, tense road and the DA’s continued participation remains uncertain.

From the DA’s side, there is a strong feeling that remaining inside the GNU is the best option. This could change, depending on the budget talks set to unfold formally with the ANC after Monday’s meeting.

The DA has insisted that economic reform must be central to the GNU’s agenda — reform that grows the economy and creates jobs. The “how” is where it and the ANC clashed ahead of Godongwana’s second budget tabling on March 12, and where the two parties could fall out again ahead of the third budget attempt.

Alongside the unfolding of the budget debacle, those inside the ANC opposed to the DA’s participation have been emboldened. They have now won over leaders who were on the fence, and even some who initially favoured the DA tie-up. The ANC national executive committee meeting in early May will test the muscle of this grouping, which includes powerful figures such as Deputy President Paul Mashatile.

There are a number of political factors at play, which became evident when the FM canvassed ANC leaders about the party’s stance. 

One problem is that the make-up of the GNU has become somewhat enmeshed in ANC succession politics. Factions are beginning to regroup away from second-term president Cyril Ramaphosa and position themselves for the succession battle, as well as the race for top leadership spots.

For now, there are two front-runners for the leadership: Mashatile and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. Mbalula’s position on the GNU is in stark contrast to that of Mashatile, who has been vocal about removing the DA from the partnership. Mbalula, his allies say, is firmly in support of the DA’s participation, seeing it as the only option for the ANC.   

However, another and perhaps crucial factor is the numbers game. In a parliamentary system, it all comes down to who can consistently command majority support in the legislature. When no party has an overall majority, every seat belonging to every party comes into play.

The ANC is acutely aware that the calculations tell the full story of the party’s electoral decline and the inherent risks accompanying it — and the extent to which the ANC needs to carefully weigh up expelling the DA.

The GNU without the DA and the FF Plus (that party is likely to exit if the DA does) would leave the ANC and seven other parties with 193 of the 400 seats in parliament. 

The “hostile and aggressive” MK and EFF, with potential support from the Zuma-aligned African Transformation Movement and the United African Transformation party (which dropped the GNU after failing to get a cabinet post), could count on 100 seats.   

The DA and its offshoots or splinter parties, such as ActionSA and Build One South Africa, and the remaining parties in parliament add up to 107 seats. The DA has the bulk of these at 87. Should the DA alone opt to vote with the “hostile and aggressive” group (for strategic rather than policy reasons), the tally for this group would stand at 187 to the ANC’s 193.

However, this is where a wild card has entered ANC calculations: the IFP, with 17 seats in parliament.

The IFP is leading the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government, with the support of the ANC, the DA and the NFP, following the shock 45% vote for MK in the 2024 election. There are fears that the DA would pull out of the provincial arrangement should it exit the national coalition.

This would leave the IFP having to fight a battle which has simmered within its own ranks since July last year: should it work with MK? There were powerful voices within the party pushing for it to do so.

In exchange for continued control of — or just participation in — governing the province, the IFP could opt to exit the national GNU and work with MK, provincially and nationally.

This would leave the ANC extremely vulnerable in parliament, even if it could attract support from the various small parties (as it was trying to do to get a majority to pass the budget). If the biggest four non-ANC parties — DA, MK, EFF and IFP — were to vote together, they could defeat the ANC. 

This would be especially relevant if Ramaphosa were to face a motion of no confidence, as he did in 2022. Add to the mix the current ANC factional dynamics, in the form of a few tactically absent ANC MPs on the day of the vote, and the party would face humiliation.

The devil will be in the detail as negotiations on the budget and “resetting” the GNU play out between the ANC and the DA, but it must also be painfully clear that there is another devil in the seat calculation scenarios. 

Solidifying the relationship with the DA will be the ANC’s safest, most risk-free option. But that does not mean it will be the option it chooses.