There may just be room for a bit of an upside revenue surprise over the next few years. And, if so, there’s more likelihood that the National Treasury’s intended fiscal consolidation will be achieved.

That’s if an in-depth analysis of South African tax data going back more than a decade is correct. It suggests that there is more stability and resilience in the personal income tax (PIT) tax base, and greater buoyancy of income and real earnings in the economy, than the national accounts are telling us, and than many commentators believe. ..

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