South Africa is scraping into the future
South Africa will likely avoid a populist disaster after 2024 but continue to muddle through, slowly overcoming its challenges. Unfortunately, progress will be too slow to transform the economy, so for the poor and unemployed there will be little to celebrate
Each day South Africans wrestle with the question of whether the country is falling irrevocably apart or whether there is just enough goodwill in society and positive reform momentum in the government to halt the slide and slowly restore the country to growth and prosperity.
Political and economic analysts are not fortune-tellers, and very few are prepared to stick their necks out by putting odds on the country’s deeply uncertain future. But BNP Paribas regional chief economist Jeff Schultz and independent political consultant to BNP Nic Borain have done just this, crafting three plausible scenarios of what the future could hold for the country in terms of the political economy. ..
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