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With inflation soaring, commodity prices tumbling and more aggressive interest rate hikes on the cards, the supportive fiscal environment that has cushioned SA for the past two years looks to be coming to an end.

Usually, such a turnaround in the economic climate would be seen as deeply negative for the fiscus. But BNP Paribas economist Jeff Schultz   is “quite optimistic” — at least in the short term. In fact, he thinks SA could achieve another revenue overrun in excess of R100bn for the coming fiscal year, even if commodity prices fall by 25% and tax buoyancy falls below parity with nominal GDP...

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