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If there’s one subject guaranteed to rile South Africans, it’s a prediction that the country is becoming a failed state. Future scenarios developed by an independent think-tank put the odds of this happening — either rapidly or through a slow-burning descent — at better than even.

Of the four scenarios developed by the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA), the risk advisory arm of the SA Institute of Race Relations, two result in SA’s decline and two show positive change...

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