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The good news is that there will be a sufficiently large revenue overrun to allow finance minister Enoch Godongwana to beat his -7.8% 2021/2022 consolidated budget deficit target by a good margin, and safely extend the R350 social relief of distress (SRD) grant for 12 more months without having to raise taxes.

Moreover, he will be able to revise upwards his deeply conservative nominal GDP growth and revenue targets for the coming fiscal year. And, if commodity prices remain well supported by the global recovery, the economy could potentially deliver another (smaller) revenue overrun in 2022/2023, allowing the consolidated deficit to fall back below 6% slightly ahead of schedule...

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