Can SA join the golden twenties?
If SA accelerates economic reforms, it could hitch a ride on a stronger global economy over the next few years. If not, it is likely to revert to pre-Covid economic stagnation
Economies around the globe are bouncing back from Covid. But the key question remains: will most countries return to their trend growth rates (as SA is expected to do) after the pandemic, or will there be a sustained period of rapid growth — the Golden Twenties?
There are two opposing schools of thought. The negative narrative holds that global growth will slow over the coming quarters as economies normalise. But since fiscal policy is largely exhausted in most countries, and the monetary stimulus provided by the world’s major central banks will soon have to be reined in as inflation rises, this will set economies on a lower long-term growth path, as has been the case after previous global crises...