Covid recovery: a dead cat bounce?
The SA economy is bouncing off its Covid-19 lows, but extensive job losses, business closures and sliding investment are eroding its longer-term potential
The good news is that the economy is growing again. In fact, the third-quarter recovery is progressing more rapidly than expected and looks decidedly V-shaped. However, signs of persistent economic damage suggest SA’s longer-run prospects continue to deteriorate.
The question is whether SA’s post-Covid recovery is going to be no more than a "dead cat bounce" before the resumption of a long downward trend — this is a cheeky investment term which, in this case, refers to the temporary post-lockdown lift SA can expect due to statistical base effects. Because even a dead cat (or economy) will bounce if it’s thrown from enough of a height...