Why the models got the Western Cape so wrong
The first official prediction of how many ICU beds would be used in the Western Cape by Covid-19 patients, made back in May, overestimated by between 12 times and 16.5 times the critical care beds needed.
Updated projections in June were better, but still out by a factor of two: modellers estimating that 780 ICU beds would be needed in July, when only 320 were needed at the peak...
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