SA’s Covid-19 models were ‘flawed’, says former NICD expert
And no-one is modelling the ‘collateral damage’ of the lockdown, and the impact of the economic meltdown on disease and death
24 April 2020 - 06:00
The modelling of how many people would contract Covid-19 and die was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”, says Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of SA’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
It’s an important claim not just because of Madhi’s stature (he also co-ran the SA Medical Research Council), but also because the Covid-19 model, which suggested between 87,000 and 350,000 deaths, was instrumental in the government’s decision to implement a lockdown..
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