As the global economy continues to falter, there is a high and rising risk that the exchange rate could sink to as low as R20/$ within 12 months on looming US rate cuts, an RMB model shows.

Last week the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than projections it made for both years in April). But it says the projected growth pickup in 2020 is "precarious" and the risks to the forecast, which include lingering trade tensions, are mainly to the downside.

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