Team SA did enough to ward off a junk rating from Moody’s, but it will have to provide evidence of significant and sustained economic growth and fiscal probity to convince the other ratings agencies that SA deserves to be raised back up to investment grade. As ever, SA seems divided into two groups: believers and sceptics. The believers stand ready to act on SA’s vastly improved growth and fiscal prospects following the political transition by investing to take the country forward. They expect a virtuous cycle to take hold of economic growth and fiscal prudence, rewarded over time by ratings upgrades and mounting social cohesion. The sceptics believe the euphoria is overdone and that President Cyril Ramaphosa will be unable to move fast enough to reduce unemployment and poverty to quell demands for growth-sapping populist policies. They fear that over time a more negative path will emerge in which policy ineffectiveness continues to undermine confidence, growth and social cohesion, ...

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