ANALYSIS: SA’s growth scenarios
The country needs to switch to a knowledge-led path to reignite growth and jobs or face rising fiscal and social pressures
SA’s developmental-state model is in disarray. The state-owned enterprise sector is on its knees, government capacity is at a record low, and there is no fiscal space to stimulate growth, which has slowed every year since 2011. For a developing country in search of a new growth model, the East Asian model of manufacturing, export-led growth has perennial appeal but it will not work here, according to economists. This was the conclusion of a summit held in Cape Town last week under the auspices of the Bureau for Economic Research, Economic Research Southern Africa and the Research Project on Employment, Income Distribution & Inclusive Growth. The keynote speaker, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, demolished the notion that manufacturing, export-led growth could reinvigorate sub-Saharan African economies. Not only are robots fast replacing manufacturing jobs, but the sector’s global importance is falling as the services sector becomes "the growth sector ...
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