SA's economy: into a stormy future
SA is probably not heading for a catastrophic economic meltdown, but economists are worried that further stagnation and decay are quite likely
SA’s economic outlook is extremely uncertain but the consensus is that the country is likely to experience stagnant GDP growth with little improvement in per capita income and employment over the next three years. And that’s if everything goes really well. Financial markets and the rand have weathered President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle and the loss of SA’s investment-grade credit rating surprisingly well, thanks to a highly supportive global environment. But recent indicators of real economic activity are worrying. The Absa manufacturing PMI for April plummeted to 44.7 index points while passenger vehicle sales dived by almost 14% y/y in the same month, suggesting that business and consumer confidence may have suffered another "confidence shock". This is the view of Hugo Pienaar, a senior economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER). Even more worrying, he says, is that the BER’s first-quarter manufacturing survey shows a net majority of almost 40% of manufacturing firm...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.