Realigning the opposition
For 23 years the ANC has been immune to electoral defeat. To really challenge its position, a complete realignment of opposition politics is needed. The DA, by itself, can’t do this
The obstacles to the DA winning a majority in government are substantial, as the Financial Mail’s analysis last week laid bare. As of the 2014 national election, the DA enjoys 22.2% (4.1m votes) and the ANC 62.1% (11.4m votes). While last year’s local government elections gave the impression that the ANC is in substantial decline, the 3.3m votes it lost are fairly typical of its performance in local government elections. Crucially, history suggests that ANC voters who don’t vote in local elections return to the party in national elections. So the bottom line is that without the ANC imploding or splitting, it would appear near impossible for the DA to breach the substantial gulf — about 40 percentage points (or 7m votes) — between it and the ANC. The question, then, is what can be done about the problem politically? How can opposition politics reshape itself to launch a serious bid for power?The first option — one that appears to currently define DA thinking — is to pursue coalition ...
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