No more Trump surprises: 10 ways to get better at forecasting
One study found a dart-throwing chimpanzee was as good a forecaster as the average expert in a range of fields
The victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election, like the Brexit vote earlier in the year, certainly confounded many experts. It showed that despite their qualifications and the analytical tools at their disposal, the pundits are often no better at seeing the future than the layperson. Indeed, one famous 2005 study found that, over a 20-year period, a dart-throwing chimpanzee was as good a forecaster as the average expert in a broad range of fields. The above may leave one feeling despondent. The story implied that forecasting was an exercise in futility and that we might as well toss a coin or hire a chimp to throw a dart before buying a car or choosing an investment. However, there is some hope for us – and it comes from the person who led the chimpanzee study, Philip Tetlock of the Wharton School. Tetlock has made a career out of examining forecasting and finding ways to become better at it. His research encouraged him to look a little closer at the findings. While th...
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