Finally, there are growing indications of the recovery in consumer spending we long foresaw as likely in the second half of this year after marked weakness last year and a contraction in real (inflation-adjusted) total consumer spending in the first quarter of this year. Though it is to be expected that the data will be mixed around such a turning point, consumers have likely turned the corner.

While the latest retail sales volumes over the past week may have undershot the average forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg by sliding marginally in July (by 0.2% from June), sales volumes were still 2% higher than the same time last year (which is double the average growth in the first half of this year). Standard Bank clients’ spending and income have also been slightly more robust recently after marked weakness in the first months of this year...

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