While interest rate cuts have been under way for some time in several of South Africa’s emerging market peers, South Africans are not yet enjoying such financial relief, and nor is it likely to be announced at the next interest rate meeting later this month.

Indeed, the domestic interest rate trajectory remains subject to elevated forecast risk, which recently flared up to such an extent that the money market swung from foreseeing rate cuts to rate hikes instead. Though these changes (in inflation drivers and interest rate expectations) have subsequently reversed, they demonstrated the elevated, and broad-based, forecast risk from factors ranging from the domestic election and crop estimates to geopolitical warfare and global interest rates...

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