Does global tariff war spell the end of emerging market party?
Donald Trump’s duties could slow demand while a strong US economy helps attract foreign investors, writes Jeremy Gardiner
We are currently inundated by the mainstream media calling the end to one of the longest bull runs in history. Similarly, the end of the emerging market rally has also been trumpeted loudly. And what a rally it was, with emerging market equities up nearly 40% in US dollars over 2017, well ahead of developed market equities (23%). In addition, money poured into emerging market bond funds in 2017, despite the fact that rating agencies rated the quality of them at the lowest level since 2010. South African investors, however, can be forgiven for feeling they have missed the party, with the past three years offering dismal returns. Unfortunately, as we all know too painfully, the firing of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in the first half of 2017 and the subsequent stumbling from one self-induced disaster to another, culminating in all but ratings agency Moody’s declaring our sovereign debt junk, saw us ejected from the party, which takes some doing as emerging markets are a motley c...
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