Commodities set for a rebound in 2019
An outbreak of African swine fever in China's hogs could spell disaster for its swine exports
Commodities took a kicking in 2018 - with deep losses in everything from oil and copper to coffee and sugar - so what's in store for the 12 months to come? Here is a selective run-through of prospects and pitfalls for some of the top raw materials, and it's a reasonably positive picture that emerges. Oil's well The standout feature in commodity markets in the last quarter was crude's swoon from a four-year high into a bear market. The drivers of the reversal were record US shale output, a clutch of sanctions waivers on Iranian flows and a supply cut from Opec deemed by some to be too little. Concern about a deteriorating global economic outlook gave bears further ammunition. After that drama, prices may recover, with supply risks under-appreciated. In 2019, watch for more losses in crisis-hit Venezuela as supply risks tumbling below one million barrels a day. On top of that, US waivers on Iranian cargoes are temporary, and not all may be renewed in May. And don't underestimate Saudi...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.