South Africa is likely to avert a recession, says Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago. Instead, he forecasts a "modest improvement" in growth in the second quarter of the year. Africa's second-biggest economy contracted by 2.2% in the first three months of the year, its biggest contraction since 2009. Two consecutive quarters of contraction is a textbook definition of a recession. Earlier this month the bank lowered its growth outlook for this year to 1.2% from 1.7% and expects GDP to rise to 1.9% next year and 2% in 2020. "At these growth rates we cannot expect to make appreciable inroads into the unemployment problem in the country," Kganyago said at the bank's AGM in Pretoria. Kganyago warned about the rise of the global trade war that has been stoked by US President Donald Trump and its possible effect on the local economy, further depressing the growth outlook. "No one is going to be a winner if there is a full-blown trade war."Let's be clear, the countries that are going to...
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