Oil's rise this week to $70 a barrel for the first time in three years had clear triggers as supplies tightened and demand climbed, yet it still surprised many traders because there are so many reasons for prices to falter. Those bearish pressures are still in place, and could make it tough for crude to hold on to its gains. One thing the major forecasters agree on is that, after shrinking dramatically in 2017, oil stockpiles should be starting to build up again. Global oil demand dips seasonally as the need for winter fuels recedes, and data from both Opec and the International Energy Agency suggest that will tip the market back into surplus in the first half of this year. Inventories will shrink again in the second half, their data indicate. While weekly US data show that crude inventories are declining, it will be another couple of months before a clear picture for other consumers emerges. Supply disruptions boosted prices in early December, when a critical North Sea pipeline was...
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