Survey shows SA GDP growth at less than 5% in 2021

SA’s recovery from its deepest economic contraction in almost three decades risks stalling due to the fallout from a fourth wave of coronavirus infections driven by the Omicron variant. 

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict GDP will expand 4.9% in 2021, compared with a previous estimate of 5.1%. Africa’s most industrialised economy is now expected to grow by 2% next year and 2.1% in 2023.   

The revisions comes after more than 90 countries imposed travel bans on SA ahead of its summer holiday season after its discovery of Omicron and after output fell more than expected in the third quarter. Before the onset of the new strain, the government and central bank predicted the economy would grow by 5.1% and 5.2% respectively this year. 

The evolution of the pandemic and ongoing electricity supply constraints remain risks to the outlook. Progress on some long-awaited structural reforms that Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said the government is targeting by mid-February could bolster output from the new year. 

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Bloomberg