New record high for Germany’s trade surplus with US

Berlin — Germany’s trade surplus with the US reached a record level, data from the statistics office showed, as countries wait to learn how US President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on imported goods.

Germany’s trade surplus with the US expanded to €70bn (about R1.33-trillion) in 2024, well above the previous record of €63.3bn reported for the full-year 2023.

“It would be hard to imagine worse timing,” said Holger Görg from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

Trump substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Monday to a flat 25% “without exceptions or exemptions”.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz said in response the EU was still awaiting formal notice of any new tariffs but that any such move would be met with retaliatory measures.

The increase in trade surpluses could reverse, Görg said, if Trump imposed new tariffs on German imports, a measure the US president says would boost US manufacturing.

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, was last year the only G7 country posting a contraction for two consecutive years and a trade conflict with the US, its main trading partner, would deliver a big hit to output.

German exports to the US, led by cars and pharmaceutical goods, increased by 2.2% year-on-year to a record €161.3bn in 2024, consolidating the US position as the top buyer of goods “Made in Germany”.

Imports from the US fell by 3.4% to €91.4bn last year.

Görg said the US trade deficit reflected a lack of international competitiveness of US goods which will not be solved by tariffs.

“On the contrary, I would assume that this would have a negative impact on the US export performance,” Görg said.

The situation is completely different in trade in services, where the US has a strong export surplus, including to the EU and Germany, he noted. “Mr Trump should include that in his calculations,” Görg said.

Reuters