Brits brace for fewer veggies

London — Already reeling from the biggest rise in food prices since 1977, Britons may have to get used to shortages of fresh vegetables as soaring costs and unpredictable weather hit domestic production.

UK shoppers have faced a shortage of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers in recent weeks after disrupted harvests in North Africa reduced supply, while inflation forced industry buyers to spend more on less from important markets such as Spain.

Tax office data shows Britain imported 266,273 tonnes of vegetables in January 2023 — the smallest amount in January since 2010, when the population was about 7% lower than it is now.

Compounding matters, UK production of salad ingredients is expected to reach a record low this year as costly energy deters local producers from planting crops in greenhouses.

The tight conditions have helped to push food-price inflation to the highest in almost 50 years.

Data from market researcher Kantar on Tuesday shows UK grocery price inflation hit 17.5% in the four weeks to March 19, underscoring the problem for policymakers.

Many UK food retailers are buying less, knowing their customers can’t afford to spend as much as previously.

Jack Ward, CEO of the British Growers Association, said there was now a question mark over the future of the UK’s fresh food producers. “There’s a limit to how long growers can carry on producing stuff at a loss,” he said.

Growers, farming unions and shop owners have warned of more shortages, possibly spreading to other home-grown crops, including leeks, cauliflowers and carrots because of summer drought and winter frosts.

In March, the UK typically imports about 95% of its tomatoes, but that drops to 40% in June through to September.

The warnings come after supermarkets were forced to ration egg sales late last year, while the cost squeeze extends to poultry and pig farmers, prompting many to quit the industry.

Apple and pear growers have also said not enough trees are being planted to maintain orchards.

While the government and supermarkets say they are confident about supply, the salad crisis has shone a light on the precarious state of Britain’s fresh produce industry.

Lee Stiles, secretary of the Lea Valley Growers Association, whose members produce about three-quarters of the UK’s cucumber and sweet pepper crop, said about half of them still hadn’t by March while 10% stopped trading last year.

Empty shelves

“There are risks that empty shelves may become more commonplace,” said Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union.

The union, which expects 2023 UK production of salad ingredients to be the lowest since records began in 1985, has warned for months about the danger of excluding horticulture from a government scheme that provides help to companies struggling with energy costs.

Ward said margins in fresh produce were traditionally about 1%-2%, but they have turned negative this year due to high energy, fuel and labour costs.

For many retailers, the ability to avoid shortages will depend on how they fare in sourcing produce overseas.

That can be complicated by UK supermarkets’ practice of setting prices for the entire season, while their EU rivals are more flexible, said one grower, who also imports and packs goods.

Britain’s departure from the bloc has also played a part, with increased paperwork discouraging drivers from making the trip to the UK, which could also explain why supermarket shelves in continental Europe remain generally well stocked.

Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium that represents the main food retailers, said supermarkets were confident about the resilience of food supply chains, particularly with the approaching UK growing season.

But smaller retailers are under pressure. Engin Ozcelik, a former industry buyer who now runs a food store in North London and consults to others, said they were buying less produce after tomatoes on the vine rose from a typical price of £7 ($8.59) a box to £25 a box.

He said shoppers who once reined in spending in the final week before payday were now cutting back by the middle of the month.

The grower, who asked not to be identified, said there was too much focus on food inflation and not enough on the strength of the whole system.

“If we’ve got no product on the shelf then inflation doesn’t matter. We’ve got to learn from that.”

Reuters