‘Yellowhammer’ plan warns of protests, shortages and border chaos in no-deal Brexit
Boris Johnson’s government releases the worst-case scenario document to meet a deadline forced on it by parliament
London — The full scale of the damage a no-deal Brexit could cause to the UK was revealed when Boris Johnson’s government published its worst-case scenario — a document called Yellowhammer — it tried to keep secret.
The paper warned of food and fuel shortages, disruption to the supply chain, public disorder and intense pressure to return to the negotiating table if the UK crashes out of the European Union without an agreement. The five-page summary of no-deal planning, code-named Yellowhammer, was released late on Wednesday to meet a deadline forced upon the government by parliament.
The scenario undermines Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assertion that the UK can cope with a no-deal Brexit, and will further fuel opposition to his strategy to take the U.K. out of the EU “do or die” on Oct. 31. Parliament has already passed a law intended to prevent Johnson forcing through a no-deal Brexit, but he says he’s ready to do it anyway.
“It’s completely irresponsible for the government to have tried to ignore these stark warnings and prevent the public from seeing the evidence,” the opposition Labour Party’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said in an e-mailed statement. “Boris Johnson must now admit that he has been dishonest with the British people about the consequence of a no-deal Brexit.”
Rebel Conservative MPs teamed up with opposition parties on Monday to force through a vote compelling the government to publish the Yellowhammer documents. The plans were leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper in August.
One paragraph was redacted for what the government said were reasons of commercial confidentiality. The Sunday Times said the section dealt with the impact on oil refineries. EU tariffs will make UK fuel exports uncompetitive, and the government’s decision to set import tariffs on petrol at 0% will likely result in two refineries closing, costing about 2,000 jobs, it said.
The government expects subsequent strike action at refineries to hit fuel supplies, according to the newspaper.
MPs also demanded the government release communications between the prime minister and senior advisers on both Operation Yellowhammer and the government’s decision to suspend parliament, which took effect on Monday night. But cabinet minister Michael Gove, in charge of no-deal Brexit planning, said the government would not do so.
The advisers “have no right of reply, and the procedure used fails to afford them any of the protections that would properly be in place”, Gove said in a letter to former attorney-general Dominic Grieve, who brought the vote in Parliament. “It offends against basic principles of fairness.”
The administration suffered another blow on Wednesday when a Scottish court ruled Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament was unlawful, setting up a showdown in the Supreme Court next week.
Johnson’s spokesman said the government will abide by whatever judgment that court comes to. “We have absolute respect for the independence of the judiciary,” James Slack told reporters at a hastily convened briefing.
Johnson has said the suspension is needed so he can lay out his government’s legislative plans in what’s called a Queen’s Speech on October 14. While it is standard practice to suspend, or prorogue, parliament before such a speech, it is usually for a matter of days. Johnson has opted for a 5-week prorogation — the longest in decades.
Colin Sutherland, Scotland’s most senior judge, said in the decision that documents including a handwritten note from Johnson dismissing the parliamentary session as a “rigmarole” demonstrated that “the true reason for the prorogation” was to curtail the legislature’s ability to hold the government to account.
His colleague, judge Philip Brodie, went even further, calling the suspension an “egregious case of a clear failure to comply with generally accepted standards of behaviour”.
Earlier, there were conflicting messages from the EU on Brexit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will “work until the last day” to ensure the UK leaves the bloc in an orderly fashion. But Spanish Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said a hard Brexit that seemed “unthinkable” months ago “has now become a more than probable scenario”.
Johnson said in a Facebook Live question and answer session that he sees the mood changing in the EU, after holding meetings with his counterparts in Germany, France and Ireland. “The ice floe is cracking, there is movement under the keel of these talks and we can do this thing absolutely,” he said.
The prime minister rejected reports that he is seeking to replace the so-called backstop part of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which would ensure the Irish border remains free of checks by keeping the UK tied to EU rules, with a Northern Ireland-only version. That would not work for the UK, he said.
“The backstop is going to be removed, I very much hope — I insist,” Johnson said. “We’ve got to come out whole and entire and solve the problem of the Northern Irish border, and I’m absolutely certain we can do that.”