Britain heads into a murky Brexit
Theresa May says she will vote against a no-deal exit
London — British legislators were on Wednesday set to stave off the threat of a no-deal exit from the EU on March 29 but the second defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s divorce treaty has left the country heading into the Brexit unknown.
After two-and-a-half years of tortuous divorce negotiations with the EU and two failed attempts to get her exit deal ratified by parliament, May said she would vote against a no-deal exit that investors fear would spook financial markets, dislocate supply chains and damage the world’s fifth-largest economy.
Legislators were set to vote shortly after 19.00 GMT on a government motion that states that parliament rejects leaving the EU without a deal on March 29 but notes that leaving without a deal remains the legal default unless a deal is agreed.
While the motion has no legal force and ultimately does not prevent a no-deal exit, if legislators support it as expected then they will get a vote on Thursday on whether to delay Brexit, probably by months.
Finance minister Philip Hammond said he could free billions of pounds for extra public spending or tax cuts if parliament spared Britain the shock of leaving the world’s biggest trading bloc without an agreement to smooth the transition.
“Leaving with no deal would mean significant disruption in the short and medium term and a smaller, less prosperous economy in the long term, than if we leave with a deal,” Hammond told parliament.
Sterling was unmoved during Hammond’s speech, holding its earlier gains on the back of hopes that legislators would vote against a no-deal Brexit.
After legislators crushed her deal for a second time on Tuesday, May said it was still the best option for leaving in an orderly fashion.
“I want to leave the EU with a good deal, I believe we have a good deal,” she told parliament. May said the government would not instruct her Conservative Party’s legislators how to vote.
Legislators have submitted alternative proposals, including a plan for a “managed” no-deal exit, which could also be voted upon on Thursday.
As the UK’s three-year Brexit crisis spins towards its finale, diplomats and investors see four main options: a delay, May’s deal passing at the last minute, an accidental no-deal exit or another referendum.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “We have not given up the goal of an orderly exit [for Britain] but yesterday’s events mean the options have become narrower.”
If Britain does seek a delay, all the bloc’s other 27 members must agree to it.
The EU would prefer a short extension, with the deadline of EU-wide parliamentary elections due from May 24-26. It is unclear how such a short extension could solve the Brexit impasse in London.
EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc would need to know why Britain wanted to extend talks and it was up to London to find a way out of the deadlock.
“If the UK still wants to leave the EU in an orderly manner, this treaty is — and will remain — the only treaty possible,” Barnier told the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
As Brexit uncertainty spills into foreign exchange, stock and bond markets across the world, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are offering different probabilities on the outcomes.
“We continue to see a 55% chance that a close variant of the prime minister’s Brexit deal is eventually ratified, after a three-month extension of Article 50,” Goldman said. Its best guess was that a reversal of Brexit had a 35% probability and a no-deal Brexit a 10% probability.
Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said no-deal remained preferable to staying in the EU.
“If you pushed me to the end point where it’s a choice between no deal and no Brexit … I think no deal is going to be very disruptive for the economy and I think no deal also has serious questions for the union,” he told BBC radio.
“But I think no Brexit is catastrophic for our democracy. Between those very unpleasant choices, I think no Brexit is the bigger risk.”
The EU said there could be no more negotiations with London on the divorce terms.
Britons voted by 52%-48% in 2016 to leave the bloc, a decision that has split the main political parties and exposed deep rifts in British society.
Many fear Brexit will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional US presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China, leaving Britain economically weaker and with its security capabilities depleted.
Supporters say it allows Britain to control immigration and take advantage of global trade opportunities, while keeping close links to the EU.